Flappy Bird Analytics & Monetization

Analytics

When it comes to Flappy Bird, most people are wondering why it was deleted from app stores, why it became viral in the first place, or why such a simple game is so frustrating. I am only interested in the game analytics.

Even a simple game such as Flappy Bird can provide so many statistics that many would never think of. It's a good thing I love numbers; but unfortunately I don't have access to any Flappy Bird data. Here are a few things that come to mind in my limited time of playing the game:

General App:

• Total Downloads
• What % have the newest update?
• Current # of users?
• Peak # of users?
• Download Chart Since Inception (May 24, 2013 for iOS; January 22, 2014 for Android)
• Growth
• iOS/Android Segmentation
• % on Tablets?
• How many times was Flappy Birds deleted (% of total downloads)?*
• What % of those deletions have re-downloaded?
• Did this vary among iOS/Android users?
• How many Flappy Bird queries have there been since it got taken down vs. before it was taken down?
• Ad Data
• How many times has a display ad been displayed?
• % & # of display ads clicked on

Game Specific:

• Score
• Highest score?
• % of users that get >10? 50? 100? 200? 500?
• With sample size of 100 or greater….
• What % have gotten to 10? 50? 100? 1000?
• Total # of (gross) plays by all users?
• Avg # of plays per user?
• Gross time spent playing the game
• Avg total time per user
• Avg time spent on Flappy Bird in one session
• Longest Flappy Bird Session?
• # of Taps
• Gross
• Per User
• Per Game
• Biggest Winner/Loser?
• Most plays w/ lowest high scores
• Least plays w/ highest scores
• Correlations?
• Are users more likely to die as they get close to their high score? Right after high score?
• Same question for milestone markers (50/100/200/etc.)
• Do users perform better during certain times of the day?
• Did less people delete Flappy Bird after Mr. Nyugen removed from the app store?
• Do different colored birds perform differently?
• Do users get better over time?
• Average score from tries 1-100, 101-200, etc.
• Average score on try 1 compared to 101/501/etc.
• Do certain display ads do better than others?
• Color Scheme?
• Product?
• Do larger screens perform better?
• Tablets vs. Phones
• Is there high correlation with incoming data and dying (i.e. receiving calls/texts)?
• Medals 
• # of medals given
• Breakdown by Medal
• gold/silver/bronze
• how many of each medal users have
• What % of all plays die before/on Tube 1?
• Geographic Data
• Which country/continent had highest/lowest avg score?
• USA
• Breakdown by state
• Avg score
• Volume
• Time spent

If only I could access Flappy Birds' data to answer these questions for you…

*Flappy Bird is considered to be one of the most frustrating games out there, which I'm sure has led to tons of app deletions. Would be interesting to see the amount of people that deleted the app out of frustration (only to re-download it, of course).

Monetization

You've probably heard that Dong Nguyen makes an estimated $50,000 per day on display ad revenue, which is probably more or less accurate. If I understand correctly, Mr. Nguyen receives compensation every time a user clicks on a banner display ad. While this has obviously paid off for him, there is without a doubt a way to make more money (without hurting the user experience): in-game purchasing.

When a user inevitably dies, he/she has the ability to start over OR spend 25 cents to continue on. Simple as that. The user could have $5 worth of "Flappy Credits" before the game is started so they can use those credits in the game 25 cents at a time. Additionally, there should be a leaderboard which highlights the highest scores (and how much money, if any, was spent) sorted by categories such as country, state, friends, and/or all users. Users who don't spend money with highest scores will also have their own, separate leaderboard for best "organic" score. This strategy gives users a "crutch" to lean on but at the same time does not affect the actual game experience itself. Since users are so addicted to getting high scores among themselves or friends, this would be a winner. This is in ADDITION to advertising revenue that would be made.

Some quick math (assuming 5M downloads):

Conservative:
$25,000 x 365 =  $9,125,000
$0.10/user x 5M x 365 = $182,500,000
= $191,625,000

Average:
$35,000 x 365 = $12,775,000
$0.25/user x 5M x 365 = $456,250,000
= $469,025,000

Optimistic:
$50,000 x 365 = $18,250,000
$1.00/user x 5M x 365 = $1,825,000,000
= $1,843,250,000

I personally believe that every app is unique and should therefore possess its own unique strategy for monetization. Lots of freemium models use advertising as a crutch (Facebook), or give users a super basic version of an app to entice (read: scam) users to pay for the "normal" version (Spotify). Flappy Bird is a great example of someone who can do in app purchasing correctly. Unlike Candy Crush where after a certain amount of lives you have to wait x time to play again (or pay), this Flappy Bird idea wouldn't take away anything from the game or hold the game hostage to users. It is simply an addition that allows users to enhance their experience, but if they don't want to use it then it doesn't take away from the grace of the game.

Making Chipotle (Even) More Efficient

The Problem

Chipotle's throughput isn't fast enough. It's pretty fast, per their recent earnings statement highlighting their "four pillars of great throughput", but it still can get (much) faster in my opinion.

Theoretically, the throughput that Chipotle should be striving for is the time it takes to make an item and no more, which I believe is possible. If a burrito takes a minute to make, a minute should be the goal. There are currently factors adversely affecting this time such as payment, other ordering items (chips/guac/drinks), and customer inputs (specifics such as brown/white rice, black/pinto beans, etc.).

The Solution

I believe ALL of these adverse factors can be smushed into the time it takes to make an order. By the time my burrito is made, I have already paid for my burrito and any other things I want to order. In the article I listed above, CEO Steve Ells says he isn't against introducing a new POS system, which is essential for the solution I am about to offer.

Ells should start by pushing people to place their orders in mobile, especially when they are waiting in line. By the time a customer steps up to the employee, the employee already has their complete order and most importantly doesn't have to ask anything about the order to the customer. This frees up customer time so they can immediately go to the cashier and pay for the meal and get anything else they need to get. By the time they are done paying for everything, they are only waiting on the employee to finish making the order.

Instead of:
-place your order, name all ingredients, wait for order to be done, add chips/drinks/guac, pay

You:
-place order on mobile before getting to the front of line, pay while waiting for order to be complete, get order.

It replaces a few steps and allows throughput production to be limited to the actual order itself and nothing else. A key step of this is the customer not having to name all his/her ingredients in real time by instead putting their order on their phone. This order goes to a tablet in front of employees who will have all the info necessary to complete an order without asking a customer anything.

This also opens up to all types of possibilities on mobile, which is for another day. Most importantly, mobile allows people like me (who go to Chipotle a lot) to not have to place our same order over and over every time we go to a location. In essence, it allows Chipotle to "remember" their customers better.

If there was ever a time to push mobile, it is now.

The Numbers

Old Way: 1 Burrito (rice, beans, chicken, sauce, corn, cheese, lettuce)

Assuming
(1) You pay after your order is complete*
(2) Each individual ingredient ordered by customer takes 3 seconds**
(3) A burrito takes 1 minute to complete with no interruption***

1 min + 3 sec x (7 ingredients) + (Payment = 25 seconds) = 1 min 46 seconds

New Way: 1 Burrito (rice, beans, chicken, sauce, corn, cheese, lettuce)

= 1 min = 56.6 % faster than old way.


* Rough estimate. A customer may have to fumble through wallet/purse, hand card/cash over, wait for payment to be processed, receive card/cash back. I feel 25 seconds is a low estimate.

** Also rough estimate; maybe a little too high. Point being that an employee won't have to bother with asking customer for individual ingredients as they'll have the complete order in front of them, which eliminates (valuable) time.

***No interruption means the complete order is already known and the employee can complete the order as fast as possible.

Zombie Hockey Players

For Halloween last year (2013), nothing special was done by brands. It was the same old movies and same old Halloween themed corny shows that don't stick out. This year, lets try something different.

Imagine a viewer tuning into the nationally televised NHL event and seeing "zombie" hockey players playing their hearts out. The players have individualized makeup on as well as ripped jerseys that all play into the Halloween theme we are shooting for. Not only that, but when play is stopped and cameras pan out to the audiences, the crowd is decked out in zombie face paint and other Halloween themed clothing, giving off a "zombie hockey game" on and off the ice. Both hockey and non-hockey fans alike will tune in to see such an event (assuming good marketing pre game).

The NHL is a perfect candidate to do something halloween themed that:

1) Provides great content
2) Is centered around social (and mobile)
3) Stands out (and "wins") on Halloween

The Players

Assuming there is face paint that would not in any way interfere with a players ability to play hockey (i.e. sweating), this should absolutely be done. This is a chance to create a social product that is fun for both the players and the audience. IMO, there would be nothing cooler than tuning into a live sporting event only to see zombie hockey players flying across the ice and acting like it's just another day on the job. Hilarious.

Obviously players shouldn't be forced to participate if they don't want to, but I don't see any reason why such a fun idea wouldn't be celebrated by all. It is an opportunity for a select few teams to showcase a product that has never been attempted before.

The Crowd

If stadiums were to provide face painting before the game, and individuals were encouraged to show up early and get their face painted, there is potential for an entire crowd of people at a hockey game to be a "zombie crowd". That in itself is just amazing to think about. Just tell people to wear their hockey jerseys to the game, hire face painters, and sit back and watch as all their photos go viral online. Younger people are always looking for cool photos to share with their friends, so it should be popular with them and sellouts should be no problem.

The TV Audience

Lots of people are at home on Halloween night doing nothing besides waiting for the doorbell to ring for trick-or-treaters. Unfortunately, Halloween 2014 rests on a Friday night, so plenty of people will be out, but if you promote this event correctly most of those people out will still try to get a glimpse of the game wherever they go. Either way, tons of households will tune into the game because

1. It's a live sporting event
2. There is nothing else to watch on TV
3. It appeals to all types of people

Marketing

Each social media network has its unique advantages that should be leveraged.

Snapchat: Sending snaps to people that disappears in seconds will give people a "glimpse" of what is to come. This would most effectively be used pre game, when the hockey players are getting the face paint put on. Most of the younger crowd is on Snapchat so it would definitely capture attention/buzz on other social networks with these individuals.

Twitter/Facebook: Obviously strategies on each network should be different; how you do it is up to you. I would at least suggest posting compilation albums of the players/crowd and also starting a #hashtag promotion so you can aggregate all the pictures possible.

Why McDonald's Should Fund Jamaica's Bobsled Team

The Jamaican bobsled team just qualified but needs $80,000 in funds to even go to the Sochi Games in a couple weeks. What brand better than McDonald's to make this dream come true? If my beautifully photoshopped picture above doesn't already convince you in itself, let me explain why McD's is a perfect match for Jamaica's problem.

The cost is only ~$80,000 which is peanuts from McDonalds perspective. At a very minimum, it provides great publicity for the brand and sheds them in a good light with all who hear the story. They will most certainly be praised from the Jamaican community which provides a good opportunity to connect again with this market? It could provide a perfect segue into expanding into the Jamaican market again, just saying. The publicity alone should be enough to convince you; and imagine if the Jamaican team were to actually do well in the event or even win! I think any brand would be elated with being part of such a story, even a corporate behemoth like McDonalds.

In our ever expanding Social Age, plenty of news outlets have gotten wind of this story and you can guarantee the costs will be covered by someone, but who will step up and take advantage of this enormous opportunity sitting in front of us?

Skittles: Taste The Beastmode

Fact: Marshawn Lynch of the Seattle Seahawks loves Skittles.
Fact: The Seattle Seahawks are currently still in the Super Bowl hunt.
Fact: This is a great marketing opportunity for Skittles to take advantage of.

Skittles has a fantastic opportunity this weekend (and possibly the Superbowl) to set up a promotion. I am disappointed they didn't do anything noteworthy this past weekend when the Seahawks played the Saints. Marshawn Lynch scored a touchdown after which followed a shower of Skittles from the stands:

I mean, how much more obvious should it be? Skittles dropped the ball. They at the very least should have known that "Beast Burgers" were being sold which included a bag of Skittles as a side dish. It especially hurts considering they are one of maybe a few brands that has a native (and real time) marketing opportunity in an NFL game; which is incredibly difficult to come by.

Obviously Skittles should want to run a promotion. Free exposure on one of the highest rated (live) televised events should warrant such an activity. Last years NFC Championship game garnered 42 million viewers, while the Super Bowl had 108.4 million viewers tuned in. I fully expect these two upcoming weekends to have an even larger audience, considering the storyline (old school [Brady/Manning] vs. new school [Wilson/Kaepernick], which is an absolutely phenomenal storyline for the NFL.)

Considering that this weekend will be the only opportunity for a game to be played in Seattle, Skittles needs to act fast.

Here is my proposal:

First off, let me say there are a ton of different ways for Skittles to spin this off, the following is only the first thing that came to my mind. Also, I am not sure how content the NFL will be with such a promotion, but that can hopefully be figured out.

-Get as many Skittles as you can into CenturyLink Field during game time.
-If Marshawn Lynch scores a touchdown, the fans will make it rain Skittles*
-Capture a hopefully amazing moment
-Have social media posts ready

"Real time marketing" is a phrase often thrown out a lot these days, and it is a very real possibility with your brand this Sunday. You will have no better chance at owning a moment in front of 40+ million people at home. I can't think of an "endgame" to this proposal (such as how to get the viewers at home involved and ultimately make your brand money), but I'm sure something is there. If the Seahawks end up winning Sunday's game, then you have another major opportunity at the Super Bowl to highlight the brand in a creative way.

THE CONTEST:

One idea I thought of was a "How many total Skittles will be on the field by the end of the game?" contest, with the assumption that Marshawn Lynch scores at least one touchdown. A crew will pick up all scattered Skittles throughout the event, and at the end of the game they will be counted. This gives Skittles an opportunity to divert attention to the brand AFTER the game as well.

In order to qualify for a guessing number, one will have to purchase one of your products (say a $10 product)  before this Sundays game online to get a code which is used to "unlock" the ability to have a guess at the end amount of Skittles on the field. Winner receives two Super Bowl tickets? that they can either use or sell.

I'm a big math guy, so I think the use of numbers/data/statistics should also be used. Since the contest revolves around guessing a number, I think it's only fair to show consumers other interesting numbers.

According to Ask.com, there are approximately 65 Skittles in each regular sized bag. CenturyLink Field has 67,000 non-club seats. If one bag was sold per customer (at $1 each?), there is a possible 4,355,000 Skittles in the stadium. Assuming people run out after Lynch scores a touchdown, and there is additional time left in the game where Lynch can score again, there should also be vendors walking up and down aisles so people can "refill" at a cheap price.

*                  *                 *                 *                *

There is an absurd amount of creativity that can go into this promotion, but the most important part is that you act fast. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. In my opinion, it is an exciting opportunity for the Skittles brand to showcase their creativity, and maybe most importantly get some great exposure and make the brand lots of $$$.

Tyler Yearian
@KizmitSolutions
847 650 5319

*While I am not advocating fans throwing Skittles and potentially causing injury to anyone, it can't really be prevented. This past Saturday's game is evidence. If Skittles wants to do a safer route, then there are definitely alternatives. Additionally, Marshawn wears a visor, so at the very least no Skittles would hit his eyes. Also, if the Seahawks (and Lynch) had advanced notice of this, there can be a protocol on what is to be done if Lynch scores.

LeBron James' Ripped Jersey

Last night, LeBron James ripped his jersey towards the end of the game against the New York Knicks.

What's my point? My point is that it was a perfect opportunity for a brand to take advantage of real time marketing. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what the rip looks like and what brand would be best to take advantage of the situation (looks like a hood to me, which I pointed out in my @IdeaPundit Twitter account), but the point is that no brand recognized the situation.

Another thing to point out is that when something like this occurs, it is not a free-for-all model. I can't see any way in which, say, Pizza Hut can take advantage of this situation. The uniqueness of certain situations just naturally benefit some brands compared to others.

This goes back to the Oreo Superbowl tweet. What made Oreo's tweet so great was that it was a spontaneous action by an brand in a non-scripted situation. (Hint: just like LeBron's ripped jersey!) No brand has come even close to replicating such an execution. The only "real time" marketing tactics that have been used by brands are premeditated tweets, such as Denny's tweet after the recent BCS championship:

If it's any consolation Auburn fans, there are 47 chances to win on the way home. #BCSChampionship #BCS pic.twitter.com/2HZbH3kpsY
— Denny's (@DennysDiner) January 7, 2014

or Red Bull's VMA tweet:

The hottest new look on the red carpet. @MTV #movieawards pic.twitter.com/ii52nfgd3K
— Red Bull (@redbull) April 14, 2013

In order to duplicate Oreo's Superbowl tweet, brands need to recognize that real time marketing can occur at literally any time, and need to always be on the lookout for opportunities such as the one that occurred last night.

Until next time.

Diablo 3: Appealing to the Casual Gamer

Blizzard,

I am not here to solve all your problems. I won't go into the dreaded "end game" debate that everyone is concerned about, or any other of your seemingly countless difficulties that you must overcome. Rather, I come here to talk about a few things I have not seen brought up that will make Diablo more attractive to casual gamers (like myself) and ultimately help you make more money.


Idea #1: Hidden Items

Pretty self explanatory; consider it a game of hide and seek. The rarer the item, the harder it is to find. These items could be literally anywhere in the Diablo world and you could even make a backstory to it. Hell, you could even use this as your selling point. Maybe some items can only be found during the day (think: objects shining in the sun). Or they can only be exposed from a wall from a certain blast force. What if some hidden items weren't ever visible but you had to rely on a distinct sound made? There are tons of variables that can be considered but ultimately it creates a "holy shit I could be a few feet from the rarest item in the game at any moment" sense.

But the vast majority will not be finding these items, so what about them? I was thinking that when someone finds one of the items, this can be sent out to players on their mobile device letting them know that it was found (does Blizzard have an app? If not, that is a major leak. More on this later.). Not only can they view details of the item, but they can BID on said item. All participants will have until lets say 24 hours after the item is found to place their bid (if the finder wants to get rid of the item) to try to get the item.

I think an element of luck is exactly what's needed in a game like this, where literally the noobest of noobs could stumble upon fortune. I'm pretty much the definition of a casual gamer, and it would be much more appealing if I knew that there was an alternative method in acquiring rare items. Give the casual player something to play for.

PROS:
-Encourages exploration
-It gives casual gamers something to do/work for.
-Adds a "real time" element with participation outside of gameplay, which imo is big. I can't really think of any game where the brand connects with you outside of their game, this provides the opportunity to do so.


Idea #2: User Generated Content

Back when I was playing, one night I was getting stomped on in Vault of the Assassin (I think) and was dying. Fast. I had to GTFO. I started making my escape to find somewhere where I could use town portal, but one of the monsters (I think a doom viper) saw this and started chasing me. I was probably 1.5x faster than him so I ran to where I thought I could get out before he hit and killed me. So I stop, press T, and wait. Halfway through, the thing pops up on my screen and is coming right at me. I had to decide whether to relocate or wait it out, but I'm a gambler, so I rolled the dice. NOTE: once the DV gets to you, he sorta pauses, pulls back his spear, then jabs it at you. So he gets to me, pulls back, and EXACTLY when he went to jab at me, I disappear. He swung at air. I couldn't have timed it better if I tried again a thousand times. I can still picture it to this day. Definitely one of the highlights of my short D3 career. Yes, I did giggle like a schoolgirl.

Anyway, I thought it would make for a great commercial, which brings me to the idea of user submitted content for advertising purposes. I'm sure all types of unique situations pop up to all types of users that would make for great 15-30 second clips for outsiders to watch. Bizarre, funny, sad, perfect timing, whatever. In my opinion, it is perfect for commercial content and theoretically provides an endless stream on content. I came up with this earlier when reading about YouTube being more strict wrt copyright material, but thought YouTube is a great platform to put this on. I don't want to tell Blizzard how to spend its money but this type of content for commercial purposes would be better than 99.9% of the crap I am currently forced to watch. Each clip should basically tell a mini story that the average viewer could understand. Then you can compile all clips onto one channel so people can view on demand. Remember, Content is King! (I encourage all who are reading this to chime in with stories of your own if you have any good ones)

This brings me to the question: can users go back and review their gameplay after they are done? I haven't played for a while but I'm gonna guess no which is a problem. I think I remember this feature being on either Call of Duty or Halo? Not sure, but I think users would appreciate something like this. IF you do implement something like it, there should be a button where it saves that moment so you can go directly to it at a later time.

You can spin this off into so many things if you think about it. Reward participants if their video goes viral/if you use it in a commercial.

PROS:
-Great content
-Appealing to outsiders/potential sales
-Humor/viralability
-encourages participation beyond the actual product


Question #1: Bitcoin

This is purely thinking out loud. I'm a complete noob when it comes to Bitcoin, so maybe someone could chime in, but is it possible to use users' computers for mining purposes (assuming you have consent)? According to this one year anniversary chart, ~2.1 million users are playing on any given day. That's a lot of computing power imo.


Question #2: Diablo 3 Revenue Streams?

I can only think of 1) purchases of the game, and 2) AH commissions. AH must have not brought in that much money if you are discontinuing it, but where are you going to make up for this lost revenue?

So what are the D3 revenue streams?


Question #3: Mobile & Big Data

The only thing I could find about Blizzard using mobile after a quick search was an app for authentication purposes. Which is great and all, but I think Blizzard should consider doing more to interact with the consumer OUTSIDE of the game. Going off my hidden items idea, Blizz could put the Diablo maps within their app so users can search microscopically for the hidden items.

I can think of all types of things that can be done from a mobile perspective so I won't go into this too much, but is the authentication thing really the only mobile product they have out there?

Then there's Big Data. Obviously Blizz collects vast amounts of data and they have great products for  gaining insight to make better business decisions. What are they doing in regard to this? I'm highly interested in analytics and am simply curious about this.



General Thoughts:

Here is a good article I found when doing research:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-09-28-blizzards-success-isnt-magic-just-hard-work-and-open-minds

Blizzard obviously caters to the casuals and that article does a good job explaining why. I still think Blizzard needs to do more things to appeal to the casual gamer, and there is so much potential, but I don't think they see it yet.