Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Flappy Bird Analytics & Monetization



Analytics

When it comes to Flappy Bird, most people are wondering why it was deleted from app stores, why it became viral in the first place, or why such a simple game is so frustrating. I am only interested in the game analytics.

Even a simple game such as Flappy Bird can provide so many statistics that many would never think of. It's a good thing I love numbers; but unfortunately I don't have access to any Flappy Bird data. Here are a few things that come to mind in my limited time of playing the game:

General App:

  • Total Downloads
    • What % have the newest update?
    • Current # of users?
    • Peak # of users?
  • Download Chart Since Inception (May 24, 2013 for iOS; January 22, 2014 for Android)
    • Growth
  • iOS/Android Segmentation
    • % on Tablets?
  • How many times was Flappy Birds deleted (% of total downloads)?*
    • What % of those deletions have re-downloaded?
    • Did this vary among iOS/Android users?
  • How many Flappy Bird queries have there been since it got taken down vs. before it was taken down?
  • Ad Data
    • How many times has a display ad been displayed?
    • % & # of display ads clicked on

Game Specific:

  • Score
    • Highest score?
    • % of users that get >10? 50? 100? 200? 500?
    • With sample size of 100 or greater….
      • What % have gotten to 10? 50? 100? 1000?
  • Total # of (gross) plays by all users?
    • Avg # of plays per user?
  • Gross time spent playing the game
    • Avg total time per user
    • Avg time spent on Flappy Bird in one session
      • Longest Flappy Bird Session?
  • # of Taps
    • Gross
    • Per User
    • Per Game
  • Biggest Winner/Loser?
    • Most plays w/ lowest high scores
    • Least plays w/ highest scores
  • Correlations?
    • Are users more likely to die as they get close to their high score? Right after high score?
      • Same question for milestone markers (50/100/200/etc.)
    • Do users perform better during certain times of the day?
    • Did less people delete Flappy Bird after Mr. Nyugen removed from the app store?
    • Do different colored birds perform differently?
    • Do users get better over time?
      • Average score from tries 1-100, 101-200, etc.
      • Average score on try 1 compared to 101/501/etc.
    • Do certain display ads do better than others?
      • Color Scheme?
      • Product?
    • Do larger screens perform better?
      • Tablets vs. Phones
    • Is there high correlation with incoming data and dying (i.e. receiving calls/texts)?
  • Medals 
    • # of medals given
    • Breakdown by Medal
      • gold/silver/bronze
      • how many of each medal users have
  • What % of all plays die before/on Tube 1?
  • Geographic Data
    • Which country/continent had highest/lowest avg score?
    • USA
      • Breakdown by state
        • Avg score
        • Volume
        • Time spent
If only I could access Flappy Birds' data to answer these questions for you…

*Flappy Bird is considered to be one of the most frustrating games out there, which I'm sure has led to tons of app deletions. Would be interesting to see the amount of people that deleted the app out of frustration (only to re-download it, of course).

Monetization

You've probably heard that Dong Nguyen makes an estimated $50,000 per day on display ad revenue, which is probably more or less accurate. If I understand correctly, Mr. Nguyen receives compensation every time a user clicks on a banner display ad. While this has obviously paid off for him, there is without a doubt a way to make more money (without hurting the user experience): in-game purchasing.

When a user inevitably dies, he/she has the ability to start over OR spend 25 cents to continue on. Simple as that. The user could have $5 worth of "Flappy Credits" before the game is started so they can use those credits in the game 25 cents at a time. Additionally, there should be a leaderboard which highlights the highest scores (and how much money, if any, was spent) sorted by categories such as country, state, friends, and/or all users. Users who don't spend money with highest scores will also have their own, separate leaderboard for best "organic" score. This strategy gives users a "crutch" to lean on but at the same time does not affect the actual game experience itself. Since users are so addicted to getting high scores among themselves or friends, this would be a winner. This is in ADDITION to advertising revenue that would be made.

Some quick math (assuming 5M downloads):

Conservative:
$25,000 x 365 =  $9,125,000
$0.10/user x 5M x 365 = $182,500,000
= $191,625,000

Average:
$35,000 x 365 = $12,775,000
$0.25/user x 5M x 365 = $456,250,000
= $469,025,000

Optimistic:
$50,000 x 365 = $18,250,000
$1.00/user x 5M x 365 = $1,825,000,000
= $1,843,250,000

I personally believe that every app is unique and should therefore possess its own unique strategy for monetization. Lots of freemium models use advertising as a crutch (Facebook), or give users a super basic version of an app to entice (read: scam) users to pay for the "normal" version (Spotify). Flappy Bird is a great example of someone who can do in app purchasing correctly. Unlike Candy Crush where after a certain amount of lives you have to wait x time to play again (or pay), this Flappy Bird idea wouldn't take away anything from the game or hold the game hostage to users. It is simply an addition that allows users to enhance their experience, but if they don't want to use it then it doesn't take away from the grace of the game.


Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Making Chipotle (Even) More Efficient

The Problem

Chipotle's throughput isn't fast enough. It's pretty fast, per their recent earnings statement highlighting their "four pillars of great throughput", but it still can get (much) faster in my opinion.

Theoretically, the throughput that Chipotle should be striving for is the time it takes to make an item and no more, which I believe is possible. If a burrito takes a minute to make, a minute should be the goal. There are currently factors adversely affecting this time such as payment, other ordering items (chips/guac/drinks), and customer inputs (specifics such as brown/white rice, black/pinto beans, etc.).

The Solution

I believe ALL of these adverse factors can be smushed into the time it takes to make an order. By the time my burrito is made, I have already paid for my burrito and any other things I want to order. In the article I listed above, CEO Steve Ells says he isn't against introducing a new POS system, which is essential for the solution I am about to offer.

Ells should start by pushing people to place their orders in mobile, especially when they are waiting in line. By the time a customer steps up to the employee, the employee already has their complete order and most importantly doesn't have to ask anything about the order to the customer. This frees up customer time so they can immediately go to the cashier and pay for the meal and get anything else they need to get. By the time they are done paying for everything, they are only waiting on the employee to finish making the order.

Instead of:
-place your order, name all ingredients, wait for order to be done, add chips/drinks/guac, pay

You:
-place order on mobile before getting to the front of line, pay while waiting for order to be complete, get order.

It replaces a few steps and allows throughput production to be limited to the actual order itself and nothing else. A key step of this is the customer not having to name all his/her ingredients in real time by instead putting their order on their phone. This order goes to a tablet in front of employees who will have all the info necessary to complete an order without asking a customer anything.

This also opens up to all types of possibilities on mobile, which is for another day. Most importantly, mobile allows people like me (who go to Chipotle a lot) to not have to place our same order over and over every time we go to a location. In essence, it allows Chipotle to "remember" their customers better.

If there was ever a time to push mobile, it is now.

The Numbers

Old Way: 1 Burrito (rice, beans, chicken, sauce, corn, cheese, lettuce)

Assuming
(1) You pay after your order is complete*
(2) Each individual ingredient ordered by customer takes 3 seconds**
(3) A burrito takes 1 minute to complete with no interruption***

1 min + 3 sec x (7 ingredients) + (Payment = 25 seconds) = 1 min 46 seconds

New Way: 1 Burrito (rice, beans, chicken, sauce, corn, cheese, lettuce)

= 1 min = 56.6 % faster than old way.


* Rough estimate. A customer may have to fumble through wallet/purse, hand card/cash over, wait for payment to be processed, receive card/cash back. I feel 25 seconds is a low estimate.

** Also rough estimate; maybe a little too high. Point being that an employee won't have to bother with asking customer for individual ingredients as they'll have the complete order in front of them, which eliminates (valuable) time.

***No interruption means the complete order is already known and the employee can complete the order as fast as possible.